A tale of two chambers: Trumps power holds in House, wanes in Senate | TheHill

The infrastructure debate dominating Capitol Hill this summer is highlighting the sharp contrast between the chambers when it comes to the influence of former President TrumpDonald Trump Study finds more than 9,000 anti-Asian attacks took place since March 2020 Biden marks fourth anniversary of Charlottesville Trump, House committee to appeal judge’s order to hand over some tax records MORE over the GOP.

Nearly 20 Senate Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnell Taliban’s advance picks up speed, intensifying Afghanistan crisis McConnell demands Biden commit to sending more troops back to Afghanistan Pence-linked group steps up pressure on Congress in tax campaign MORE (Ky.), broke with Trump this week to support a massive infrastructure package, providing President BidenJoe Biden Biden urges Californians to vote against effort to recall Newsom Taliban’s advance picks up speed, intensifying Afghanistan crisis Overnight Defense: Troops head back to Afghanistan to aid diplomatic evacuation MORE with a big win and reflecting the diminishing hold his predecessor has on the upper chamber.

But the story is likely to be much different in the House, where Trump retains a muscular grip and GOP leaders have deemed his support vital to both the party’s prospects of winning back the chamber and their individual aspirations for rising in the leadership ranks.

McConnell, ignoring Trump’s warnings that the infrastructure deal was a “disgrace,” joined 18 other Senate Republicans in approving the $1 trillion package on Tuesday — a rare bipartisan achievement in a Congress that’s practically defined by partisan hostility.

But the bill likely won’t find similar backing in the House, where Minority Leader Kevin McCarthyKevin McCarthy Trump endorses Van Orden in Wisconsin race to succeed Rep. Ron Kind Pelosi’s office rips ‘disgusting’ GOP attacks on Capitol Police: ‘Enough is enough’ McCarthy sells ‘moron’ campaign T-shirts to protest mask mandates MORE (R-Calif.), Minority Whip Steve ScaliseStephen (Steve) Joseph Scalise Wyoming GOP leaders say they no longer recognize Cheney as party member Republican who went maskless now says coronavirus ‘wants to kill us’ Republican governors revolt against CDC mask guidance MORE (R-La.) and Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise StefanikElise Marie Stefanik Wyoming GOP leaders say they no longer recognize Cheney as party member Sunday shows preview: US grapples with rising COVID-19 cases National Organization for Women calls for Cuomo resignation MORE (N.Y.) are all expected to vote against the proposal when it hits the floor in the fall.

“They will vote ‘no.’ There’s no political upside” for them to vote “yes,” one veteran House Republican told The Hill.

The expected opposition is, in some aspects, a no-brainer. Not only would it align GOP leaders with Trump, who remains the party’s standard bearer, it would also undercut Biden’s message that he’s bringing bipartisanship to Washington, while providing Republicans with new ammunition to attack Democrats as profligate spenders of taxpayer dollars.

“Infrastructure to Democrats is a five lane highway to socialism,” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), head of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, tweeted as the lower chamber headed into its August recess.

Still, infrastructure projects are enormously popular with the public — support that transcends political ideologies — and some Republican leaders are treading carefully into the debate. Neither McCarthy nor Stefanik, for instance, have commented publicly on the bipartisan Senate deal, nor did their offices respond this week to questions about how they’ll vote when it reaches the House floor.

Scalise has been more vocal. In an interview this week with Maria BartiromoMaria Sara Bartiromo The Memo: Biden beats Trump again — this time in the Senate Graham says he’d ‘leave town’ to stop .5T spending plan The Memo: Trump pours gas on tribalism with Jan. 6 rewrite MORE of Fox Business, the Republican whip acknowledged the bipartisan infrastructure bill had momentum after the lopsided 69-30 Senate vote. But he’s still rooting for it to go down in defeat, along with a separate $3.5 trillion package of Democratic priorities that’s running on a parallel track.

Scalise railed against a provision in the infrastructure bill that would allow Transportation Secretary Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg The Senate’s Vehicle Miles Traveled Tax is bad for our health White House gears up for next fight after infrastructure win The Hill’s Sustainability Report: This plastic additive is ecstasy for hermit crabs MORE to create a pilot program to study a per-mile user fee for drivers and said the legislation includes “hundreds of billions of dollars of slush funds.”

But the No. 2 GOP leader said the “big problem” he had with the bill centered on Democrats’ process: Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy Pelosi Hillicon Valley: US has made progress on cyber but more needed, report says | Democrat urges changes for ‘problematic’ crypto language in infrastructure bill | Facebook may be forced to unwind Giphy acquisition Harris hosts CEOs, executives at White House to discuss affordable childcare Pelosi announces House staffers can now earn higher salaries than lawmakers MORE (D-Calif.) has tied the two packages together, vowing she wouldn’t bring infrastructure to the floor until the Senate passed the $3.5 trillion package that includes what Scalise called “amnesty” and “Green New Deal garbage.”

“Nancy Pelosi has made it clear. The two bills are linked together. … The two are one in the same, which means over $5 trillion of new spending with taxes to go with it that will kill middle-class jobs,” Scalise said on Fox Business.

However, given the popularity of the infrastructure issue, McConnell’s backing of the bill and the near certainty it will become law, it’s unlikely that House leaders will whip their rank-and-file members aggressively against the package.

Most House Republicans will stick with Trump and their leadership team and vote no. Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah), a member of the centrist Problem Solvers Caucus, praised the Senate’s “bipartisan work” on infrastructure but, like Scalise, slammed Pelosi for linking the two packages together.

“These bills may be attractive to the many who see money coming their way, but it is not the Utah way — nor is it the way I vote,” Curtis said in a statement Thursday.

Yet a handful of other moderate Republicans have already signaled they will vote “yes” when the $1 trillion package heads to the floor. Two House GOP lawmakers both predicted, based on conversations with colleagues, that anywhere between 30 and 40 Republicans will be on board.

“It’s time to make an investment in our nation that will pay dividends for future generations. Finding new and innovative ways to keep America moving is one of the most important roles of the federal government,” said Rep. Adam KinzingerAdam Daniel Kinzinger Jan. 6 Committee will reconvene after Labor Day — Republicans should be scared Five big questions as Jan. 6 panel preps subpoenas Liz Cheney says her father is ‘deeply troubled’ about the state of the Republican Party MORE (R-Ill.), a vocal Trump critic who is serving on Pelosi’s special committee probing the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

“I support the legislation passed by the Senate, as well as the bipartisan negotiations that made it possible. A strong national infrastructure is vital for our ability to compete globally, foster local and regional economic development, and create jobs.”

If 30 to 40 Republicans break with Trump, it would represent a significant number, though much smaller, percentage wise, than GOP support in the Senate. Forty House Republicans would represent less than 19 percent of the GOP conference; meanwhile, nearly 40 percent of GOP senators voted “yes.”

“Trump’s influence remains, but 19 votes in the Senate and the need for infrastructure keeps us in the range” of 30 to 40 GOP “yes” votes in the House, the veteran House GOP lawmaker said.

For McConnell, bucking Trump bears little risk. The Senate GOP leader has been the target of attacks by the former president all year long after McConnell took the remarkable step of holding Trump personally responsible for the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

GOP senators, including McConnell, may also have been enticed to back the infrastructure bill to send a message that the Senate remains capable of passing major bipartisan legislation — a dynamic that undermines the liberal arguments for eliminating the filibuster, which Republicans want to keep intact.

In addition to McConnell, the GOP “yes” votes included Sens. Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt Romney China eclipses Russia as the world’s ‘biggest bad’ actor Bipartisan blip: Infrastructure deal is last of its kind without systemic change The Memo: Biden beats Trump again — this time in the Senate MORE (Utah), Bill CassidyBill Cassidy Bipartisan blip: Infrastructure deal is last of its kind without systemic change The 19 GOP senators who voted for the T infrastructure bill Two Florida school districts refusing to let students opt out of mask mandates MORE (La.), Shelley Moore CapitoShelley Wellons Moore Capito The 19 GOP senators who voted for the T infrastructure bill Senate passes T bipartisan infrastructure bill in major victory for Biden Republicans renew intraparty battle over trillion-dollar spending MORE (W.Va.), Susan CollinsSusan Margaret Collins Bipartisan blip: Infrastructure deal is last of its kind without systemic change The Memo: Biden beats Trump again — this time in the Senate 46 GOP senators warn they will not vote to raise debt ceiling MORE (Maine), Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin Graham Graham says his COVID-19 recovery would’ve been ‘a lot worse’ without vaccine The Memo: Biden beats Trump again — this time in the Senate 46 GOP senators warn they will not vote to raise debt ceiling MORE (S.C.) and Rob PortmanRobert (Rob) Jones Portman Crypto industry seeks to build momentum after losing Senate fight House moderates call for immediate vote on bipartisan infrastructure bill McConnell stresses infrastructure’s popularity with GOP after Trump criticism MORE (Ohio), one of the bill’s chief negotiators.