The most recent poll, conducted among 1,250 Californians between Aug. 26 and Aug. 28, shows 51% of respondents voting “no” on the recall ballot’s first question (Shall Gavin Newsom be recalled?), with 43% voting “yes” and 6% undecided. The previous poll found 51% voting “yes” and 40% voting “no.”
Other recent polls have shown the first question vote within two or three percentage points, so the eight-percentage-point lead in this poll is surely a welcome sign for the governor.
The other very encouraging development for Newsom is that the partisan enthusiasm gap appears to be closing. Previously, Republicans were far more engaged with the recall and likelier to cast ballots, but in this poll, the party enthusiasm figures were similar.
83% of Republicans said they already sent in their ballots or were likely/certain to vote, and 81% of Democrats said the same. The previous SurveyUSA/San Diego Union-Tribune poll found that 84% Republicans were likely or certain to vote (ballots had not been sent out yet) compared to just 62% of Democrats who said the same.
The poll also changed the way it surveys voters on the recall ballot’s second question (which candidate should replace Newsom if he is recalled?) by offering the option of leaving the question blank as the California Democratic Party has directed. The pollster also included other Democratic candidates in the survey and found that support for YouTuber Kevin Paffrath — who received 27% support in the previous SurveyUSA poll — plummets once other Democrats are on the ballot.
With these changes, the poll found that 27% of voters who plan to vote on question two are backing conservative radio host Larry Elder. The next closest candidates are Paffrath and businessman John Cox, who received 6% support apiece. No other candidate received more than 5% support.
