A new El Niño forecast was released Thursday, revealing the latest projections on whether or not the climate phenomenon will develop in the coming months and what that could mean for the winter season ahead.
There’s now a 96% chance of an El Niño developing through winter 2026-27, according to the latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) report released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Currently, we’re in an ENSO-neutral phase as sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean continue to rise from a weak La Niña this past winter.El Niño has an 82% chance of emerging in the next month or two.
Some forecast models have projected a very strong El Niño pattern, sometimes known as a “super El Niño,” emerging this winter, in part due to climate change and warming oceans. A stronger El Niño would increase the chances of a milder and drier 2026-27 season.
However, the latest report from NOAA emphasizes it’s too early to tell how strong it will be this winter.
“The strongest El Niño events in the historical record are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer, and it remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026,” the NOAA wrote.
While there is a 96% chance of El Niño happening this winter, here’s the forecast breakdown for how strong it will be:
Based on model guidance, the strength probabilities show a 37% chance of a “very strong El Niño” this winter, a 30% chance of a “strong El Niño”, and 22% chance of a “moderate El Niño”.
In the report, NOAA reiterates “stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely.”
NOAA releases an ENSO discussion on the second Thursday of every month.
