With scant rain in the extended forecast, some experts warn a “flash drought” may be ahead for Chicago as we head into summer.
The contrast from earlier this year is staggering, as the news of a potential drought comes on the heels of the wettest March and April combined on record in the Chicago area.
So what is a “flash drought”?
A flash drought is a drought that happens quickly, developing in the span of just a few weeks.
For that to happen, an area needs both above average temperatures and dry air that eats up soil moisture quickly.
Contributing to the issue in the Chicago area is the jetstream entering into a blocking pattern often referred to as an “Omega Block”. This occurs when the upper-level winds make the shape of the Greek Letter Omega across the U.S.When this happens, warm dry air is propelled farther north across the middle of the country, and low pressure areas to the west and east act as a traffic jam for the winds to move farther east.
This particular pattern over the next two weeks may not fit the textbook definition of an Omega, but it’s pretty close, and the results are the same. The Chicago area is looking at a long stretch of dry weather at least through the first week of June, according to extended forecast models and the Climate Prediction Center.
Temperatures may be in the 70s for much of the rest of May, but northern Illinois is expected to climb back into the 80s through the first week of June.
This pattern can also get tricky with “backdoor cold fronts” off the lake, meaning several days could be considerably colder at the lakefront than the 80s farther inland.
If the pattern holds, the area could go several weeks without rain, raising the possibility of “flash drought” conditions to take hold.
